Research

PAULY RECENT RESEARCH 2004-2007

Academic Lectures and Presentations, 2004

“Economic Aspects of Health Policy in the Bush Administration.” American Economic Associate Annual Meeting. San Diego Calif., January 3, 2004.

“What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You.” With Howard Kunreuther. Allied Social Sciences Association Annual Meeting. San Diego, Calif., January 3, 2004.

“Riding in the Outpatient Drug Rodeo: Trading Off Spending Growth and New Technology.” American Society for Automation in Pharmacy. Tampa, FL, January 23, 2004.

“Ten Myths about the Uninsured.” Economic Research Initiative on the Uninsured. Washington, D.C., February 11, 2004.

“Death Spiral or Euthanasia? The Demise of Generous Group Health Insurance Coverage.” Symposium at the Center for Healthcare and Insurance Studies Department, University of Connecticut. Storrs, CT, February 18, 2004.

“Estimating the Real Cost of Workloss.” The Merck Company Foundation, Program on Pharmaceutical Policy Issues. Lafayette Hill, PA, March 1, 2004.

“Health Issues and Social Security.” Meeting of the Social Security Advisory Board. Washington, D.C., March 19, 2004.

“Demand for Insurance in Developing Countries: Theory.” World Bank. Washington, D.C., April 9, 2004.

“Incentive Compatible Guaranteed Renewable Health Insurance Premiums.” Columbia University. New York, NY, April 14, 2004.

“Interaction of Competition and Regulation in Affecting Product Quality in Medical Services.” Conference at the Federal Trade Commission. Washington, D.C., April 16, 2004.

“Incentive Compatible Guaranteed Renewable Health Insurance Premiums.” Cornell University. Ithaca, NY, April 28, 2004.

“Mix without Stirring: Public Finance and Private Markets in Health Insurance.” Institute of Public Economics. Marseilles, France, June 10, 2004.

“The Basics of Health Reform,” presentation to Congressional Staffers organized by the Mercatus Center, George Mason University, July 15-16, 2004

“Risk and Health Insurance: What Are the Policy Issues?” Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, United States Congress, September 22, 2004, published in Congressional Record. Presentation at The Future of Health Care Reform Theory-Practice Seminar. Brooklyn Law School, Brooklyn, NY, October 1, 2004.

“Covering the Uninsured: the AMA Proposal and other options.” Medical Grand Rounds, University Medical Center at Princeton. Princeton, NJ, October 19, 2004.

“Why is Health Care so Hard to Reform?” Annual Meeting of the American Society for Bioethics and Humanities. Philadelphia, PA, October 29, 2004.

“Health Policy and the Uninsured.” Health Care Symposium, Syracuse University. Syracuse, NY, November 19, 2004.

“Coping with Rising Health Benefits Costs for Workers and Retirees: Will Employers Shoot Themselves in the Foot?” Paul Levinger Professorship Pro Tem in the Economics of Health Care Lecture, Brown University. Providence, RI, December 1, 2004.

Academic Lectures and Presentations, 2005

“Effects of Insurance Coverage on Use of Care and Health Outcomes for Non-poor Young Women.” Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association. Philadelphia, PA, January 7, 2005.

“The CTS and a Decade of Competitive Change.” 2005 National Health Policy Conference. Washington, DC, February 2, 2005.

“Consumer Choice, Information, and Market Forces.” America’s Health Insurance Plans’ 2005 Executive Leadership Summit. Phoenix, AZ, February 3-4, 2005.

“What Can Competition in Medical Markets Deliver?” Milton Friedman Lecture, Marietta College. Marietta, OH, February 22, 2005.

“Ready, Fire, Aim: How Employers Should Cope with Rising Health Benefits Costs.” Economic Roundtable, Marietta College. Marietta, OH, February 23, 2005.

“Government Subsidies and Voluntary Insurance” and “Insights from Insurance Demand Theory for Developing Countries.” Wharton Impact Conference, University of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia, PA, March 15, 2005.

“Fairness and the Federal Tax Treatment of Health Insurance and Medical Care.” The President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform. New Orleans, LA, March 23, 2005.

“Measuring the Effects of Workloss on Productivity.” Health Economics Seminar, City University of New York. New York, NY, April 15, 2005.

“Competition and New Technology.” Health Care Market Competition Roundtable. Lansdowne, VA, April 29, 2005.

“The Dimensions of Health Care and the Demand for Physicians.” Association of American Medical Colleges’ Physician Workforce Research Conference. Washington, DC, May 5, 2005.

“The Cost of Prescription Drugs in Cost Effectiveness Analysis” and “Measuring the Effects of Workloss on Productivity.” International Conference on Pharmaceutical Innovation. Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, May 27, 2005.

“Government Subsidies and Voluntary Insurance.” iHEA 5th World Congress: Investing in Health, Barcelona, Spain, July 10-13, 2005.

“Medical Clusters: Issues, Questions, and Answers.” World Knowledge Forum, Seoul, Korea, October 8-12, 2005.

“The Causes and Potential Cures of Medical Spending Growth: An Economic Perspective.” Health Care Planning Grant Advisory Panels Meeting, Harrisburg, PA, October 26, 2005.

“The Costs and Consequences of Medical Innovation.” Depuy Lecture, Leonard Davis Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, November 1, 2005.

“Who Pays? The Incidence of Physician Malpractice Premiums” (with Christie Thompson, Thomas Abbott, James Margolis, and William Sage). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, November 4, 2005.

“Social Responsibility of the Pharmaceutical Industry: An Economic Perspective on Innovation.” Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Pharmaceutical Physicians (AAPP) and the Academy of Pharmaceutical Physicians and Investigators (APPI), Philadelphia, PA, November 5, 2005.

“Retirement Planning and Social Insurance: Dealing with Institutional Risk.” Wharton Executive Education Program, Philadelphia, PA, December 1, 2005.

“Health Reform in Interesting Countries.” 1st Panhellenic Congress on Health Management, Economics and Policy, Athens, Greece, December 15-17, 2005.

Academic Lectures and Presentations, 2006

“How to Cover the Uninsured without Spending a Hundred Billion Dollars.” Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, January, 2006.

“Risk Pooling in Health Insurance Markets: Is There Good Left Undone?” Eastern Economics Association Annual Conference, Philadelphia, PA, February 24 - 26, 2006.

“Academic Medical Centers and the 20% Medical Care Economy.” Council of Teaching Hospitals and Health Systems Spring Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, March 2, 2006.

“What We Don't Know Can Hurt Us.” 17th Annual Health Economics Conference, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, March 25, 2006.

“Medical Spending Growth, Quality Improvement, and the Medical Workforce.” Medical Migration Retreat, Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, April 11, 2006.

“Proposals to Cover the Uninsured: Designing a Good Fit for Latinos.” The UTPA National Uninsured Latinos Conference, Edinburg, TX, May 21-22, 2006.

“Tools for Health System Redesign: What Does a Hammer Look Like?” 13th Annual Princeton Conference of the Council on Health Care Economics and Policy, Princeton, NJ, May 25, 2006.

“Matching Spending Projections and the Physician Workforce.” American Society of Health Economists’ Conference, Madison, WI, June 4-7, 2006.

“Measurement of the Uninsured” and “Technology and Medical Care Spending.” AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting, Seattle, WA, June 25-27, 2006.

“Options for Funding Health Care,” co-presented with Peter Zweifel (University of Zurich). Public Policy Projects, London, England, July 3, 2006.

“International Study of Healthcare Organization and Financing (ISHCOF): Overview,” co-presented with Avi Dor (Case Western Reserve University) and Philip Held (Arbor Research). 6th European Conference on Health Economics, Budapest, Hungary, July 6-9, 2006.

“The Best of the Second Best: Using Tax Breaks to Manipulate Health Insurance.” American Risk and Insurance Association Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, August 7, 2006.

“The Truth about Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection.” Oberlin College Health Economics Conference, Oberlin, OH, September, 2006.

“Risks and Benefits in Health Care: The View from Economics.” ECRI’s Annual Conference: Dilemmas of Risk in Healthcare Practice and Policy, Plymouth Meeting, PA, November 15, 2006.

Academic Lectures and Presentations, 2007

“Moving toward Appropriate Cost, Quality, and Access in Medical Care.” Congressional Research Service New Member Seminar, Williamsburg, VA, January 7, 2007.

“State Models for Covering the Uninsured.” Health Policy Discussion of the American Enterprise Institute: Is the Massachusetts Health Plan America’s Next Top Model? Washington, DC, January 11, 2007.

“The New Health Economics of Human Capital.” 2007 Health & Human Capital Management Congress, Washington, DC, January 18, 2007.

“Covering the Uninsured: Facts, Controversies, and Value Judgments.” GAO Health Care Forum: Health Care 20 Years from Now, Washington, DC, May 17, 2007.

“Health System Economics: What Could It Possibly Be?” iHEA 6 th World Congress on Health Economics, Copenhagen, Denmark, July 9, 2007.

Articles

Rector TS, Finch MD, Danzon PM, Pauly MV, Manda BS. Effect of Tiered Prescription Copayments on the Use of Preferred Brand Medications. Medical Care. March 2003; 41(3): 398-406.

Wang YR, Pauly MV, Lin YA. Impact of Maine’s Medicaid Drug Formulary Change on Non-Medicaid Markets: Spillover Effects of a Restrictive Drug Formulary. The American Journal of Managed Care. October 2003; 9(10): 686-696.

Volpp K, Williams S, Waldfogel J, Silber J, Schwartz S, Pauly MV. Market Reform in New Jersey and the Effect on Mortality from Acute Myocardial Infarction. Health Services Research. April 2003; 38(2): 515-524

Armstrong K, Weber B, FitzGerald G, Hershey JC, Pauly MV, Lemaire J, Subramanian K, Asch DA. Life insurance and breast cancer risk assessment: adverse selection, genetic testing decisions, and discrimination. American Journal of Medical Genetics. Part A. July 30, 2003; 120(3): 359-64.

Hirth RA, Chernew ME, Turenne MN, Pauly MV, Orzol SM, Held PJ. Chronic Illness, Treatment Choice, and Workforce Participation. The International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics. September 2003; 3(3): 167-182.

Pauly MV. What if Technology Never Stops Improving? Medicare’s Future Under Continuous Cost Increases. Washington and Lee Law Review. Fall 2003; 60(4): 1233-1250.

Pauly MV. Administering Social Problems Through the Tax System: Tax Implications of Health Benefits. The IRS Research Bulletin (Publication 1500). November 2003: 87-100.

Pauly MV. Medicare Drug Coverage And Moral Hazard. Health Affairs. January/February 2004; 23(1): 113-122.

Pauly MV, Kunreuther H. Neglecting Disaster: Why Don’t People Insure Against Large Losses? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. January 2004; 28(1): 5-21.

Pauly MV, Zeng Y. Adverse Selection and the Challenges to Stand-Alone Prescription Drug Insurance. DM Cutler and AM Garber, eds., Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Vol. 7. (Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004), pp. 55-74.

Pauly MV. Keeping health insurance tax credits on the table. Journal of the American Medical Association. May 12, 2004; 291 (18): 2255-6.

Pauly MV, Nichols L. 10 Myths of the Uninsured, AHIP Coverage, May-June 2004; 45(3): 16-22.

Pauly MV. Competition in Medical Services and the Quality of Care: Concepts and History. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics. June 2004; 4(2):113-130.

Pauly MV. Conflict and Compromise over Tradeoffs in Universal Health Insurance Plans. Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics. Fall 2004; 32(3): 465-473.

Andreucci VE, Fissell RD, Bragg-Grisham JL, Ethier J, Grennwood R, Pauly M, Wizeman V, Port FK. Dialysis Outcoms and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) data on medications in hemodialysis patients. American Journal of Kidney Diseases. November 2004; 44(5, Suppl. 3): 61-67.

Pauly MV. What if Technology Never Stops Improving? Medicare’s Future Under Continuous Cost Increases. Specialty Law Digest. Health Care Law. December 2004; 308: 9-26.

Wang YR, Pauly MV. Spillover Effects of Restrictive Drug Formularies: a case study of PacifiCare in California. American Journal of Managed Care. January 2005; 11(1): 24-6.

Pauly MV. Means-Testing in Medicare. Health Affairs Web Exclusive, December 8, 2004. http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/reprint/hlthaff.w4.546v1, January 12, 2005.

Pagan JA, Pauly MV. Access to conventional medical care and the use of complementary and alternative medicine. Health Affairs. Jan-Feb. 2005; 24(1): 255-62.

Pauly MV. Presentation transcript from “Refundable Tax Credits: Design Challenges,” Center for Health and Social Policy, April 25, 2003. Big Choices: The Future of Health Insurance for America’s Families, Apfel KS and Flowers BS, eds. (LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas and the LBJ Library: Austin, 2005) 52-58.

Pauly MV. Mix without Stirring: Public Finance and Private Markets in Health Insurance. économie publique n°15 (2004-2), April 2005, 65-86.

Pauly MV. Effects of Health Insurance on Use of Care and Outcomes for Young Women. The American Economic Review. May 2005; 95(2): 219-223.

Pauly MV. Improving Vaccine Supply And Development: Who Needs What? Health Affairs. May/June 2005; 24(3): 680-689.

Wang YR, Pauly MV. Spillover Effects of Restrictive Drug Formularies on Physician Prescribing Behavior – Evidence from Medicaid. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy. September 2005; 14(3): 755-773.

Pauly MV. Competition and New Technology. Health Affairs. Nov/Dec 2005; 24(6): 1523-1535.

Nicholson S, Pauly MV, Polsky D, Baase CM, Billotti GM, Ozminkowski RJ, Berger ML, Sharda CE. How to Present the Business Case for Healthcare Quality to Employers. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. 2005; 4(4): 209-218.

Pauly MV, Zweifel P. Market Outcomes, Regulation, and Recommendations for Policy. Private Health Insurance in Developing Countries: Friend or Foe? AS Preker, R Scheffler, and M Bassett, eds. (World Bank: Washington, DC, 2006)

Pauly MV. The Demand for Heath Insurance: Insights from Theory and Voluntary Markets in Less-Developed Countries. Private Health Insurance in Developing Countries: Friend or Foe? AS Preker, R Scheffler, and M Bassett, eds. (World Bank: Washington, DC, 2006)

Nicholson S, Pauly MV, Polsky D, Sharda C, Szrek H, Berger ML. Measuring the Effects of Workloss on Productivity with Team Production. Health Economics. February 2006; 15(2): 111-123.

Pauly MV, Herring BJ, Song DK. Information Technology and Consumer Search for Health Insurance. The International Journal of the Economics of Business. February 2006; 13(1): 45–63.

Pauly MV, Zweifel P, Scheffler RM, Preker AS, Bassett M. Private Health Insurance in Developing Countries. Health Affairs. March/April 2006; 25(2): 369-379.

Pauly MV. Who Pays When Malpractice Premiums Rise? Medical Malpractice and the U.S. Health Care System, WM Sage and R Kersh, eds. (Cambridge University Press: New York, 2006) 71-83.

Herring B, Pauly MV. Incentive-Compatible Guaranteed Renewable Health Insurance. Journal of Health Economics . May 2006; 25(3): 395-417.

Pagan JA, Pauly MV. Community-level Uninsurance and Unmet Medical Needs of Insured and Uninsured Adults. Health Services Research. June 2006; 41(3): 788-803.

Bundorf MK, Pauly MV. Is Health Insurance Affordable for the Uninsured? Journal of Health Economics . July 2006; 25(4): 650-673.

Kunreuther H, Pauly MV. Insurance Decision Making and Market Behavior. Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics . 2006; 1(2): 63-127.

Pauly MV. Time, Risk, Precommitment, and Adverse Selection in Competitive Insurance Markets. Competitive Failures in Insurance Markets , C Gollier and PA Chiappori, eds. (MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2006).

Kunreuther H, Pauly, M. Rules rather than discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. September 2006; 33(1/2): 101-116.

Pauly MV. The Tax Subsidy to Employment Based Health Insurance and the Distribution of Wellbeing. Law and Contemporary Problems. Autumn 2006; 69(4): 83-101.

Pauly MV. Is High and Growing Spending on Cancer Treatment and Prevention Harmful to the U.S. Economy? Journal of Clinical Oncology. January 10, 2007; 25(2): 171-174.

Li-Wei C, Pauly MV, Szrek H, Pereira NS, Bundred F, Grant W, Cross C, Mbhele WT, Gow J. Poor Health Kills Small Business: Illness and Microenterprises in South Africa. Health Affairs . March/April 2007; 26(2): 474-482.

Volpp KG, Stone R, Lave JR, Jha AK, Pauly M, Klusaritz H, Chen H, Cen L, Brucker N, Polsky D. Is Thirty-Day Hospital Mortality Really Lower for Black Veterans Compared with White Veterans? Health Services Research, OnlineEarly Article, January 24, 2007. http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/hesr/0/0, March 13, 2007.

Viswanathan KS , Lemaire J, Withers K, Armstrong K, Baumritter A, Hershey JC, Pauly MV, Asch DA. Adverse Selection in Term Life Insurance Purchasing due to the BRCA1/2 Genetic Test and Elastic Demand. The Journal of Risk and Insurance. March 2007; 74(1): 65–86.

Herring BJ, Pauly MV. The Demand for Health Insurance in the Group Setting: Can You Always Get What You Want? The Journal of Risk and Insurance. March 2007; 74(1): 115–140.

Pauly MV. Measures of Costs and Benefits for Drugs in Cost Effectiveness Analysis. Pharmaceutical Innovation: Incentives, Competition, and Cost-Benefit Analysis in International Perspective, FA Sloan and CR Hsieh, eds. ( Cambridge University Press: New York, 2007) 199-214.

Pauly MV. Risks and Benefits in Health Care: The View from Economics. Health Affairs. May/June 2007; 26(3): 653-662.

Pauly MV, Herring B. Risk Pooling and Regulation: Policy and Reality in Today’s Individual Health Insurance Market. Health Affairs. May/June 2007; 26(3): 770-779.

Pauly MV, Thompson C, Abbott T, Margolis J, and Sage W. Who Pays? The Incidence of High Malpractice Premiums. Forum for Health Economics & Policy Vol. 9, Iss. 1 (Frontiers in Health Policy Research), Article 2. http://www.bepress.com/fhep/9/1/2, July 17, 2007 .

Work Forthcoming

Accepted for Publication

Pauly MV. Drug and Vaccine Pricing and Innovation: What is the Story? Forthcoming in Managerial and Decision Economics, 2007.

Pauly MV, Pagán JA. Spillovers and Vulnerability: The Case of Community Uninsurance. Forthcoming in Health Affairs, 2007.

Nicholson S, Pauly MV, Polsky D, Berger M, Sharda C. Valuing Reductions in On-the-Job Illness: “Presenteeism” from Managerial and Economic Perspectives. Forthcoming in Health Economics, 2007.

Pauly MV, Mitchell O, Zeng Y. Death Spiral or Euthanasia? The Demise of Generous Group Health Insurance Coverage. Forthcoming in Inquiry , 2007 .

Pauly MV. Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard: Implications for Health Insurance Markets. Forthcoming in Incentives and Choice in Health and Health Care, F Sloan and H Kasper, eds. (MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2008).

Working Papers and Submitted Work

Herring B, Pauly MV. The Effect of State Community Rating Regulations on Premiums and Coverage in the Individual Health Insurance Market. NBER Working Paper 12504, August 2006. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12504 , January 31, 2007.

Pauly MV, Blavin FE. Value Based Cost Sharing Meets the Theory of Moral Hazard: Medical Effectiveness in Insurance Benefits Design. NBER Working Paper 13044, April 2007. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13044 , May 2, 2007.

Dor A, Pauly MV, Eichleay MA, Held PJ. End-stage Renal Disease and Economic Incentives: The International Study of Health Care Organization and Financing. NBER Working Paper 13125, May 2007. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13125 , June 7, 2007.

Pauly MV, Lieberthal R. How Risky is Individual Health Insurance? Submitted to Health Affairs.